A spokesperson for Abbott told me that they might also help people “start thinking about coordinating more covid-conscious bridal showers, baby showers, or birthday parties.” For employers who want to keep an office or factory open, they say, self-directed consumer tests might be a good option. “I think that the move to over-the-counter is great, but it has limited value in a world where vaccines become more widely available.” Vaccination credentials could be more important for travel and dining than test results are.Ĭompanies selling the tests say they are still a relevant strategy for getting back to normal, especially given that kids aren’t getting vaccinated yet. “The real value of these tests was six months ago,” says Amitabh Chandra, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School. Home tests will now be manufactured in the tens of millions, say their makers, but some experts aren’t sure how much they will matter at this point. But the number of daily tests in the US has never much exceeded 2 million, according to the Covid Tracking Project, and most of those were done in labs or on special instruments. Still relevant?Īs the covid-19 pandemic spread around the globe last year, economists and scientists called for massive expansion of testing and contact tracing in the US, to find and isolate infected people. If used at scale to screen for covid, they could send millions of anxious people in search of lab tests and medical care they don’t need. Related StoryĪs a result, I don’t think home tests are as useful as some have hoped. This lower background rate means if home tests were used by everyone in the country tomorrow, there could be five to 15 wrong positives for every right one. Now consider this same phenomenon-a higher chance of false positives than of real ones-applying to a large group, or even a whole country. The way I was using the test, any positive result was nearly certain to be wrong. What this meant is that my chance of a correct positive when I took the test was also essentially zero, while my false positive chance remained 2% like everyone else’s. The second source of trouble I didn’t anticipate is what is known as “pretest probability.” As I said, I don’t socialize, so my probability of actually having covid in first place was very low, maybe even zero. By the time my review of the home tests was complete, I’d tested five times in two days, accumulating 1 in 10 odds of being told I had covid when I didn’t (a 2% chance of a false positive each time, multiplied by five tests). The first way is through repeat testing, the kind I did. What I didn’t realize-and what your everyday CVS shopper won’t either-is that there are two ways that less-than-perfect specificity can get amplified into a bigger problem. For the home tests I tried, that figure is about 98%, with a corresponding 2% rate of false positives. The tricky part of unrestricted testing, I learned, comes instead from the concept of “specificity,” or the rate at which a test correctly identifies negatives. But if the alternative is no test at all, then none of those infections would be caught. That is, they catch about nine of every 10 infections, a metric called the test’s “sensitivity.” Some people have said that any missed cases are a worry, since a person with a false negative could go out and infect someone else. If your child has mild symptoms such as a runny nose, sore throat or mild cough, and they feel well enough, they can go to school or childcare.The issue with home tests is accuracy, which is between 85% and 95% for detecting covid. You can go back to your normal activities when you feel better or do not have a high temperature. do not feel well enough to go to work, school, childcare, or do your normal activities.Try to stay at home and avoid contact with other people if you or your child have symptoms and either: You may be able to look after yourself at home if you have COVID-19 or symptoms of COVID-19. What to do if you have symptoms of COVID-19 For some people, it can be a more serious illness and their symptoms can last longer. Most people feel better within a few days or weeks of their first COVID-19 symptoms and make a full recovery within 12 weeks. The symptoms are very similar to symptoms of other illnesses, such as colds and flu.
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